Negative export growth of the hottest construction

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The negative export growth of the construction machinery industry in the whole year seems to be a foregone conclusion

the negative export growth of the construction machinery industry in the whole year seems to be a foregone conclusion

China Construction machinery information

Guide: in the traditional peak sales season, the construction machinery industry suddenly turns out to be a little confused at the moment. On June 8, the latest data obtained from China Construction Machinery Industry Association showed that in April, the overall sales revenue of China's construction machinery fell by 14% year-on-year, and the sales volume of main engines fell by 28.6% year-on-year. This number

in the traditional peak sales season, the construction machinery industry is now a little confused

on June 8, the latest data obtained from China Construction Machinery Industry Association showed that in April, the overall sales revenue of China's construction machinery fell by 14% year-on-year, and the sales volume of main machines fell by 28.6% year-on-year. This figure will drag the construction machinery industry, which has just shown signs of stabilization and recovery, into a trough again

peak season "premature death"

the special macro situation will inevitably lead the industry data out of a special curve

on June 8, I saw a newly drawn construction machinery sales curve on Mao Zhongwen's desk. As the Deputy Secretary General of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, he also expressed some doubts about the current market form

it can be clearly seen from this figure that in 2008, China's construction machinery industry walked out of a curve with large fluctuations and high before and low after. In the first quarter of 2009, the curve gradually rose smoothly, and sales showed signs of improvement. But in April, it turned down again, and the high point remained in the round of "sudden outbreak" in March 2009

data shows that the year-on-year growth rate of China's construction machinery sales revenue from January to March 2009 was -50.4%, -12.7%, -8.7% respectively, and the sales volume of mainframe was -51.6%, -12.4%, -26.7% respectively. The judgment given by the association at that time was: "the year-on-year difference of overall sales in the first quarter of this year is shrinking, and it is expected to be the same as last year at the end of the second quarter, with an increase of 12% for the whole year."

generally speaking, March to May and September to November are the traditional peak sales seasons in the construction machinery industry, of which April is the most promising. As early as April this year, the main and auxiliary composite leaf springs should be able to ensure that the working surface of the auxiliary leaf spring will come to a sudden end under the rated static load, the specified negative load and the reference load, which inevitably makes people worry about the performance of the whole year of 2009. What's more worrying is that according to the latest statistical data released by the Association (the data in May has not been fully counted), in May, China's excavators sold 7339 units, down 31.7% month on month (10742 units sold in April), reaching a trough again, and it seems unlikely that the peak season will return

Mao Zhongwen told on June 8, "if China's GDP is guaranteed to be successful this year, construction machinery is expected to achieve a 10% growth." Obviously, this is slightly lower than the previous association's estimate of 12%

coincidentally, on June 8, it was reported that he Zhenlin, vice president of Sany Group Co., Ltd., said in Shanghai on June 5 that Sany group's sales this year are expected to reach 35billion yuan. During the two sessions this year, Xiang Wenbo, the president of the group, told the figure of 40billion yuan. It is not known whether this adjustment was intentional or unintentional

negative export growth

a major reason for the "fleeting" peak season may come from the continued downturn in exports

the "briefing" of China Construction Machinery Industry Association on May 15 pointed out that the export amount of China's construction machinery in the first quarter of 2009 was $1.86 billion, a decrease of 34.7% over the previous year. Among them, the total export of complete machine products was 1.22 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 37%. "At present, imports and exports continue to decline, and the decline in exports is significantly greater than imports. The impact of the international financial crisis on China's construction machinery export trade is still deepening."

it was noted in the "briefing" that the cumulative export volume of excavators, loaders, graders, truck cranes, forklifts and concrete machinery produced in China from January to March this year showed a negative growth of more than 50%, and the decline of bulldozers, rollers, crawler cranes and pile drivers was less than 50%. Among them, only pavers, tower cranes and a small number of large tonnage truck cranes and engineering vehicles have achieved positive growth

it can be seen that the main products of China's construction machinery, loaders, forklifts, truck cranes and bulldozers, which have impacted the export trade, have performed poorly, which also directly dragged down the overall export level of the industry in 2009. Another data can also explain some problems: from January to March, the cumulative number of imported parts and components of China's construction machinery industry decreased by 31.7% year-on-year, which means that China, which has long relied on imports for more than 70% of key parts and components, does not think well of the market situation in the second half of the year, and reducing production capacity has become an adjustment that has to be made

"at the beginning of 2009, the relevant institutions predicted that the North American construction machinery market would decline by 25% for the whole year; the British institutions judged that the European market would decline by 26%; the German institutions' estimate of the European market was as low as 33%. However, as of April, the decline of the European construction machinery market had reached 50%." Mao Zhongwen told on the 8th

according to the latest statistics from China's Excavator Industry in May, only 103 excavators of all kinds were exported in the country that month, with a month on month decrease of 12.7%. Compared with 421 excavators in the same period last year, the decrease was 80.3%, and the exports were mainly concentrated in products of 6 tons and below

In this regard, Mao Zhongwen said, "it is a foregone conclusion that China's construction machinery exports will grow negatively in 2009."

what's wrong with construction machinery

what's wrong with construction machinery? An insider recently raised such a question about

indeed, after the industry suffered from the international financial crisis, it is expected that the huge amount of money from the country and the traditional peak sales season can help the construction machinery out of the downturn. Moreover, the data of the first quarter shows that the industry is moving forward in the trend of stabilization and recovery. However, the April data did cast another unknown fog on the construction machinery industry, which had just begun to recover

at the end of May, an executive of a leading domestic construction machinery enterprise admitted to him that he was also a little confused by the current repeated, sometimes good and sometimes bad market conditions. On the same day, when throwing this question to another insider of a domestic construction machinery enterprise, his answer was equally confused. He said: "compared with the company's agricultural machinery business, construction machinery seems tepid."

what makes me wonder is that recently, some enterprises have frequently seen "opportunities in danger" and "hot sales" in the newspapers, which is in great contrast with the authoritative data of the association. Does this also indicate that some securities institutions, insiders and some enterprises have the suspicion of "reporting good news without reporting bad news"

with the continuous deepening of science and technology

of course, under the overall decline, the current "uneven hot and cold" phenomenon in the construction machinery industry is also objective. Mao Zhongwen said that at present, the construction machinery market related to railway construction is very good, including bridge erection machinery, pile drivers, rotary drilling rigs, cranes, etc., and the orders of some enterprises have been arranged until 2012

it is not difficult to see that at present, construction machinery is in the buyer's market, and the reason for the current overall sales downturn is that the corresponding demand has not been really opened. Under the harsh conditions that the "troika" (infrastructure, housing transformation, complex technology, real estate, export) supporting the construction machinery sales market has lost the "two vehicles" (the real estate market is hot, the true and false are difficult to distinguish, and the export prospect is unclear), enterprises should pay close attention to the market trend, quickly make product structure adjustment, and even reduce the production capacity of some inappropriate products, and actively explore new markets and develop new products, Perhaps this is the best way for construction machinery enterprises to tide over the difficulties at present

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